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La Niña is cooler waters in the Pacific. El Niño is warmer. That’s the big difference between the two phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
The Climate Prediction Center released their ENSO outlook highlighting the likelihood of a gradual shift. It shows the overall pattern moving from a weak La Niña to a weak El Niño by the end of summer.
Generally, this winter has been drier than average for most locations. Yes, rain and snow here and there, but ongoing drought worsens across the southern United States. — a direct impact of a La Niña winter. Drier than normal conditions focused in the southern region as of the middle of January.
Good thing El Niño means the opposite! Generally, it means enhanced rainfall for the South.
Rainfall patterns are among the most noticeable effects. A stronger, more active subtropical jet typically brings wetter-than-average conditions to the southern tier of the U.S., including the Southwest and the Gulf Coast, especially in winter. However, impacts can happen through the year.
In contrast, parts of the Northwest, Plains, and Midwest often experience drier and warmer conditions though the transition can take time and may be uneven.
Looking ahead to summer, the long-range pattern can shape climate conditions in the southern United States. El Niño summers often bring slightly cooler and, in some areas, wetter conditions compared to La Niña summers, which are typically hotter and drier in the South.
Increased spring rainfall can help replenish soil moisture, potentially moderating intense heat early in the season. However, lingering warmth in the atmosphere and oceans can still support periods of extreme heat and humidity, meaning El Niño does not eliminate summer heat risks.
While not all El Niño pattern are the same, here’s an example. Between 2014 and 2015, we shifted into a weak El Niño pattern. This helped enhance rainfall across for several cities across the South.
Let’s hope for more rainfall in 2026 because several cities and states have been in perpetual drought. Especially in South Texas.
Ryan Shoptaugh covers national weather. Check your neighborhood forecast from your local trusted local weather team here.
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